⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Martigues 1–4 Metz

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win65%1.45
Draw21%4.50
Martigues win14%7.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Martigues +1.2553%1.85
Metz +1.2547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Pape Diallo · Metz
13'⚽Karim Tlilli · Martigues
16'⚽ (pen)Gauthier Hein · Metz
21'🟨Nathanaël Saintini · Martigues
35'⚽ (pen)Gauthier Hein · Metz
51'🟨Francois Kembolo Luyeye · Martigues
79'🟨Leandro Morante · Martigues
81'⚽Ablie Jallow · Metz
83'🟨Matthieu Udol · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
14Shots14
4On target8
1Corners5
7Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMartiguesMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.760.71
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Turcan
coach days
100.00
284.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.27
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.13
dominance (last 5)0.370.51
elo1389.451608.29
elo momentum (last 5)14.6122.69
eye test v1-1.040.29
eye trend v1-0.14-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)57.9071.40
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.870.75
league points28.0060.00
league rank18.003.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8085.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8061.80
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg0.901.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.40
skill v1-0.031.45
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
squad age—26.07
state index-0.280.64
sterile dominance v10.741.41
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.16
threat rate (last 5)0.160.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.20