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Dunkerque 3–1 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 7, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win37%2.59
Dunkerque win33%2.91
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +053%1.83
Dunkerque +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Théo Le Bris · Guingamp
41'🟨Alec Georgen · Dunkerque
51'🟨Lenny Vallier · Guingamp
69'⚽Gessime Yassine · Dunkerque
75'🟥Donatien Gomis · Guingamp
82'⚽Abdoullah Ba · Dunkerque
88'🟨Abdoullah Ba · Dunkerque
90'⚽ (og)Yacine Bammou · Guingamp
90'⚽Marco Essimi · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
6On target4
2Corners4
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.660.78
cards avg (last 5)2.000.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
coach days
584.00
341.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.62
elo1467.471533.17
elo momentum (last 5)-17.5023.73
eye test v1-0.191.60
eye trend v1-0.240.47
first sub minute (last 10)52.3062.10
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.680.77
league points51.0054.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2086.40
possession avg (last 5)60.2059.20
rest days9.998.99
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg1.761.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.606.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4015.60
skill v11.271.41
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.338.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.807.80
state index-0.440.57
sterile dominance v11.260.82
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00