← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.88 |
| Caen win | 22% | 4.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Metz +0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.89 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Noe Lebreton · Caen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz |
| 47' | ⚽ | Samuel Grandsir · Caen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Brahim Traoré · Caen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz |
| 68' | ⚽ | Noe Lebreton · Caen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yann M'Vila · Caen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sadibou Sané · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 63.00 |
| 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1340.22 | 1613.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.62 | 34.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 72.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| league points | 19.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 4.72 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.52 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |