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Caen 2–2 Metz

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win53%1.80
Draw25%3.88
Caen win22%4.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen +0.7552%1.91
Metz +0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Noe Lebreton · Caen
42'⚽Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz
47'⚽Samuel Grandsir · Caen
50'🟨Brahim Traoré · Caen
61'⚽Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz
68'⚽Noe Lebreton · Caen
74'🟨Yann M'Vila · Caen
78'🟨Sadibou Sané · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots12
5On target3
6Corners8
16Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.720.71
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days
63.00
278.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.23
corner diff avg (last 5)1.202.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.591.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.55
elo1340.221613.76
elo momentum (last 5)-6.6234.58
eye test v10.310.44
eye trend v10.34-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)53.8072.40
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.560.78
league points19.0059.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0086.40
possession avg (last 5)57.4063.40
rest days4.727.71
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg0.631.97
shot diff avg (last 5)3.002.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2012.60
skill v11.071.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.80
squad age—24.52
state index-0.740.84
sterile dominance v10.751.45
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.202.20