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Paris FC 4–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 31, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Rosier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win65%1.48
Draw21%4.55
Caen win15%7.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −1.2553%1.83
Paris FC −1.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Timothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC
27'🟨Valentin Henry · Caen
32'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
44'⚽Mathieu Cafaro · Paris FC
45'🟨Alex Moucketou-Moussounda · Caen
54'🟨Noe Lebreton · Caen
60'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
74'🟨Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
82'⚽Godson Kyeremeh · Caen
90'⚽ (og)Mathys Tourraine · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
16Shots16
7On target4
2Corners3
12Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.72
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
coach days
669.00
58.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.53
elo1571.041345.06
elo momentum (last 5)9.11-6.55
eye test v1-0.280.06
eye trend v10.220.40
first sub minute (last 10)63.8053.80
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.660.72
league points58.0019.00
league rank3.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)61.6060.00
rest days16.2416.99
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg2.000.66
shot diff avg (last 5)1.401.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.20
skill v11.430.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
squad age28.06—
state index0.46-0.61
sterile dominance v11.411.16
threat rate (last 10)0.210.16
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60