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Red Star 1–1 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win36%2.70
Rodez win36%2.66
Draw29%3.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez +050%1.93
Red Star +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽ (og)Nolan Galves · Red Star
32'🟨Till Cissokho · Rodez
34'🟨Nolan Galves · Rodez
43'🟨Ryad Hachem · Red Star
45'🟨Ahmad Toure Ngouyamsa · Rodez
45'⚽ (pen)Timothee Nkada · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots12
3On target5
2Corners8
6Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.660.63
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Paris
coach days
270.00
848.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1359.151475.33
elo momentum (last 5)31.2731.64
eye test v10.620.68
eye trend v10.50-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.2067.50
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.83
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.730.69
league points32.0037.00
league rank16.0011.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4043.80
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.240.26
season ppg1.141.28
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.0013.00
skill v10.30-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.60
state index0.020.24
sterile dominance v10.38-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80