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Bastia 2–0 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia win42%2.30
Draw30%3.10
Dunkerque win28%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque −0.2550%1.94
Bastia −0.2550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Christophe Vincent · Bastia
8'🟨Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia
22'🟨Ugo Raghouber · Dunkerque
32'🟨Yacine Bammou · Dunkerque
43'🟨Gustave Akueson · Bastia
70'⚽Maxime Blé · Bastia
77'🟨Abner · Dunkerque
89'🟨Julien Maggiotti · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots11
8On target1
3Corners4
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days
300.00
574.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.50
elo1456.861480.93
elo momentum (last 5)-25.897.08
eye test v10.61-0.23
eye trend v1-0.22-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)52.6053.00
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.680.66
league points38.0051.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6085.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4058.40
rest days13.0013.25
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.311.82
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.40
skill v10.251.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.80
state index-0.31-0.02
sterile dominance v10.001.32
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00