← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Dunkerque win | 28% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Bastia −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
| 8' | 🟨 | Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ugo Raghouber · Dunkerque |
| 32' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Dunkerque |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gustave Akueson · Bastia |
| 70' | ⚽ | Maxime Blé · Bastia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Abner · Dunkerque |
| 89' | 🟨 | Julien Maggiotti · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days |
| 300.00 |
| 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1456.86 | 1480.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.89 | 7.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |