← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 53% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.52 |
| Bastia win | 20% | 5.05 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Lorient −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Arthur Avom Ebong · FC Lorient |
| 38' | 🟨 | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 39' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient |
| 50' | 🟨 | Montassar Talbi · FC Lorient |
| 70' | ⚽ | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 88' | ⚽ | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat |
| coach days |
| 287.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1604.65 | 1465.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.76 | -15.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 58.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.25 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.40 | — |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |