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Laval 3–0 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win50%1.91
Draw28%3.36
Laval win22%4.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC +0.551%1.89
Laval +0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Adama Camara · Paris FC
18'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Laval
51'🟨Maxime López · Paris FC
53'⚽Malik Sellouki · Laval
55'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Laval
85'🟨Enzo Montet · Laval
90'🟨Mamadou Camara · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots16
8On target5
5Corners8
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.700.60
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Le Basser
coach days
2084.00
653.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.16
dominance (last 5)0.500.51
elo1484.251590.88
elo momentum (last 5)-23.3317.82
eye test v1-1.02-0.16
eye trend v1-0.06-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.5064.20
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.810.64
league points44.0058.00
league rank7.001.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6084.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8058.40
rest days7.757.00
scorer concentration0.200.31
season ppg1.572.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.8010.00
skill v1-0.151.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.80
squad age—27.80
state index-0.340.36
sterile dominance v10.221.36
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20