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Dunkerque 2–3 Metz

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win43%2.26
Draw30%3.25
Dunkerque win28%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz +0.2551%1.93
Dunkerque +0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz
39'🟨Naatan Skyttä · Dunkerque
54'⚽Diogo Queirós · Dunkerque
72'⚽Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz
90'🟨Anto Sekongo · Dunkerque
90'🟨Morgan Bokele Mputu · Metz
90'🟨Urie-Michel Mboula · Metz
90'⚽ (og)Sadibou Sané · Dunkerque
90'⚽Morgan Bokele Mputu · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots10
5On target6
8Corners6
14Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.690.72
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
coach days
561.00
257.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.560.59
elo1489.611595.62
elo momentum (last 5)29.2427.00
eye test v10.070.82
eye trend v10.05-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.8068.80
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.680.82
league points51.0050.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0086.80
possession avg (last 5)61.6059.20
rest days4.726.75
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.891.85
shot diff avg (last 5)2.604.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0015.40
skill v11.621.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.60
squad age—25.89
state index0.360.80
sterile dominance v11.470.73
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80