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Martigues 2–2 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Valnet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win44%2.15
Draw28%3.44
Martigues win28%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC +0.2552%1.85
Martigues +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Karim Tlilli · Martigues
45'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC
50'⚽Kandet Diawara · Pau FC
54'⚽ (pen)Khalid Boutaïb · Pau FC
70'🟨Pathé Mboup · Pau FC
85'🟨Kandet Diawara · Pau FC
85'⚽Karim Tlilli · Martigues
89'🟨Oumar Ngom · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots14
4On target7
4Corners3
12Fouls19
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMartiguesPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.740.66
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Turcan
coach days
72.00
1717.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.954.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.20
dominance (last 5)0.370.54
elo1383.081389.61
elo momentum (last 5)7.89-45.10
eye test v1-0.660.01
eye trend v1-0.01-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)57.6060.50
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.900.73
league points24.0033.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0084.40
possession avg (last 5)45.2051.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.130.22
season ppg0.861.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.202.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.8014.00
skill v1-0.800.75
sot against avg (last 5)6.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
state index-0.43-1.02
sterile dominance v1-0.060.22
threat rate (last 10)0.230.32
threat rate (last 3)0.190.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20