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Amiens 2–1 Caen

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win40%2.43
Amiens win31%3.14
Draw30%3.23

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +0.2553%1.82
Caen +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Thomas Monconduit · Amiens
53'🟨Mohamed Jaouab · Amiens
58'⚽Antoine Leautey · Amiens
73'⚽Nordine Kandil · Amiens
82'🟨Yann M'Vila · Caen
90'🟨Rémy Vita · Amiens
90'⚽Kalifa Coulibaly · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots11
3On target5
2Corners4
13Fouls20
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.75
cards avg (last 5)1.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days
622.00
41.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.310.46
elo1369.011352.91
elo momentum (last 5)-41.49-12.18
eye test v1-0.39-0.60
eye trend v1-0.270.41
first sub minute (last 10)60.4054.80
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.630.75
league points30.0019.00
league rank16.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6055.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.110.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.609.80
skill v1-0.310.52
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.40
state index-1.32-0.76
sterile dominance v10.141.00
threat rate (last 10)0.200.16
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60