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Ajaccio 2–1 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win36%2.68
Draw33%2.86
Red Star win31%3.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio +054%1.79
Red Star +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.46
Over35%2.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Pierre Lemonnier · Red Star
32'🟨Hianga'a M'Bock · Red Star
38'🟨Mickaël Barreto · Ajaccio
57'⚽Julien Anziani · Ajaccio
81'⚽Julien Anziani · Ajaccio
90'🟨Pierre Lemonnier · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots9
5On target4
6Corners7
6Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.710.69
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel-Moretti
coach days
72.00
256.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.361.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.390.54
elo1414.131366.13
elo momentum (last 5)14.1742.71
eye test v1-0.990.35
eye trend v1-0.050.20
first sub minute (last 10)53.8062.80
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.620.75
league points34.0032.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4080.40
possession avg (last 5)39.8053.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg1.261.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6012.20
skill v1-0.750.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.20
state index-0.390.07
sterile dominance v1-0.360.50
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00