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Rodez 5–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win39%2.45
Rodez win32%2.98
Draw28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez +0.2554%1.80
Dunkerque +0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Dunkerque
13'🟨Opa Sangante · Dunkerque
27'🟥Enzo Bardeli · Dunkerque
52'⚽Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
54'⚽Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
55'🟨Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
57'⚽Timothee Nkada · Rodez
70'🟨Ugo Raghouber · Dunkerque
80'⚽Derek Mazou-Sacko · Rodez
90'⚽Waniss Taibi · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots10
9On target1
4Corners3
16Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
box share (last 5)0.620.74
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days
830.00
556.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.652.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.470.60
elo1455.671507.95
elo momentum (last 5)-15.2133.18
eye test v10.260.27
eye trend v10.06-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)65.3057.20
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.45
keeper form v1—0.74
league points33.0051.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8086.60
possession avg (last 5)42.6063.40
rest days9.037.00
scorer concentration0.270.19
season ppg1.221.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0012.40
skill v1-0.991.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
state index-0.340.69
sterile dominance v1-1.051.54
threat rate (last 10)0.310.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.15
threat rate (last 5)0.300.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.20