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Metz 5–1 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win64%1.48
Draw22%4.40
Annecy win14%7.18

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy −1.2554%1.78
Metz −1.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Sadibou Sané · Metz
12'⚽ (og)Axel Drouhin · Metz
29'⚽Jessy Deminguet · Metz
45'🟨Trévis Dago · Annecy
53'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
64'⚽Ablie Jallow · Metz
67'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Metz
69'⚽Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
86'⚽Joel Asoro · Metz
90'⚽Morgan Bokele Mputu · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots8
5On target2
4Corners3
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.720.62
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Saint-Symphorien
coach days
250.00
1407.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.931.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.48
elo1585.601470.41
elo momentum (last 5)15.63-21.20
eye test v10.57-0.44
eye trend v10.160.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.4052.00
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.840.69
league points47.0045.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)61.6042.80
rest days7.258.00
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg1.811.67
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.60
skill v11.65-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age25.77—
state index0.54-0.34
sterile dominance v11.05-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80