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Paris FC 3–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win35%2.75
Draw33%2.90
FC Lorient win32%3.06

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC +053%1.84
FC Lorient +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Mathieu Cafaro · Paris FC
22'🟨Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC
25'🟨Samir Sophian Chergui · Paris FC
25'⚽ (pen)Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient
31'🟨Mathieu Cafaro · Paris FC
35'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
38'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
61'🟨Igor Silva · FC Lorient
71'⚽ (pen)Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
75'🟨Julien López · Paris FC
90'🟨Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
11Shots15
5On target7
1Corners7
17Fouls17
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
coach days
646.00
280.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.092.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.570.72
elo1581.681613.85
elo momentum (last 5)16.3812.16
eye test v1-0.411.15
eye trend v1-0.50-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)66.2058.40
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.660.75
league points55.0058.00
league rank2.001.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6086.80
possession avg (last 5)56.2062.80
rest days7.756.75
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg2.042.15
shot diff avg (last 5)2.4011.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2017.40
skill v11.051.68
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.40
squad age27.4025.75
state index0.630.82
sterile dominance v11.120.84
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.160.26
threat rate (last 5)0.180.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.40