← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 60% | 50% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.19 | value: +18% |
| Clermont win | 16% | 22% | 6.23 | value: +38% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Guingamp −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Mons Bassouamina · Clermont |
| 24' | 🟨 | Allan Ackra · Clermont |
| 48' | 🟨 | Baïla Diallo · Clermont |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tidyane Diagouraga · Clermont |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jacques Siwe · Guingamp |
| 71' | 🟨 | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp |
| 88' | ⚽ | Sohaib Nair · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josue Isala · Clermont |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 310.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1516.61 | 1472.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.29 | -53.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.45 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |