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Guingamp 3–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win60%1.57
Draw23%4.19
Clermont win16%6.23

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −151%1.91
Guingamp −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Mons Bassouamina · Clermont
24'🟨Allan Ackra · Clermont
48'🟨Baïla Diallo · Clermont
53'🟨Tidyane Diagouraga · Clermont
65'⚽Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
71'🟨Donatien Gomis · Guingamp
81'🟨Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp
88'⚽Sohaib Nair · Guingamp
90'🟨Josue Isala · Clermont
90'⚽ (pen)Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots4
12On target2
10Corners0
14Fouls19
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.54
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days
310.00
126.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)3.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.121.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.46
elo1489.581435.52
elo momentum (last 5)-34.00-52.13
eye test v10.46-0.48
eye trend v10.55-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)65.0059.30
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.730.73
league points42.0028.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win3.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)56.8048.80
rest days6.257.00
scorer concentration0.230.15
season ppg1.621.08
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.20
skill v11.240.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)7.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.00
state index-0.51-1.11
sterile dominance v10.920.26
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20