← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Rosier
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 37% | 2.59 |
| Red Star win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Red Star +0 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Junior Mendes · Guingamp |
| 42' | ⚽ | Loic Kouagba · Red Star |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hianga'a M'Bock · Red Star |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aliou Badji · Red Star |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kemo Cissé · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacques Siwe · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kemo Cissé · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Red Star | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de Paris |
| coach days |
| 243.00 |
| 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1332.55 | 1509.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | -5.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| league points | 26.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |