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FC Lorient 0–1 Laval

← Ligue 2 2024-25 Β· Sat, Feb 22, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win68%1.40
Draw21%4.66
Laval win11%8.90

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval βˆ’1.2551%1.91
FC Lorient βˆ’1.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient
44'🟨Christ-Owen Kouassi · Laval
58'🟨Titouan Thomas · Laval
62'🟨Malik Sellouki · Laval
81'🟨Julien Laporte · FC Lorient
87'🟨Amine Cherni · Laval
87'⚽Amine Cherni · Laval

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots7
5On target3
4Corners3
16Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.59
cards avg (last 5)0.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat
coach days
266.00
2063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.05
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.650.48
elo1622.111475.12
elo momentum (last 5)30.78-25.70
eye test v11.07-0.62
eye trend v10.11-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)58.0063.10
form points (last 5)15.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.710.81
league points55.0038.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6079.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2051.80
rest days7.757.75
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg2.201.52
shot diff avg (last 5)7.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0011.20
skill v11.120.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.80
squad age25.60β€”
state index0.89-0.41
sterile dominance v10.560.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60