← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Chapapria
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Pau FC win | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Pau FC −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Brahim Traoré · Caen |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Mille · Pau FC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Yann M'Vila · Caen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Didí Gaucho · Caen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Bingourou Kamara · Pau FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Caen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Antoine Mille · Pau FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC |
| 58' | 🟥 | Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Romain Thomas · Caen |
| 63' | 🟥 | Romain Thomas · Caen |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Pathé Mboup · Pau FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jules Gaudin · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yann M'Vila · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 25 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 21.00 |
| 1697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1346.84 | 1411.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.71 | -13.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.72 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.89 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |