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Caen 2–2 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Chapapria

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win43%2.25
Pau FC win30%3.30
Draw27%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.2551%1.92
Pau FC −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Brahim Traoré · Caen
7'⚽ (pen)Antoine Mille · Pau FC
10'⚽Yann M'Vila · Caen
30'🟨Didí Gaucho · Caen
33'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
34'🟨Bingourou Kamara · Pau FC
35'🟨Alexandre Mendy · Caen
54'🟨Antoine Mille · Pau FC
58'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
58'🟥Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
59'⚽Romain Thomas · Caen
63'🟥Romain Thomas · Caen
71'⚽ (pen)Pathé Mboup · Pau FC
86'🟨Jules Gaudin · Caen
90'🟨Yann M'Vila · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots10
6On target3
5Corners2
25Fouls20
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.770.80
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days
21.00
1697.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.031.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.330.52
elo1346.841411.80
elo momentum (last 5)-50.71-13.87
eye test v1-0.960.80
eye trend v1-0.29-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)55.6057.90
form points (last 5)0.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.421.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.740.74
league points15.0029.00
league rank19.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet12.006.00
matches since win12.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)54.4049.00
rest days4.727.75
scorer concentration0.390.23
season ppg0.601.21
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.4015.60
skill v10.430.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.60
state index-1.89-0.71
sterile dominance v11.19-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.130.35
threat rate (last 3)0.140.33
threat rate (last 5)0.130.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.00