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Rodez 1–1 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win62%1.53
Draw23%4.20
Amiens win15%6.83

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez −152%1.88
Amiens −148%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Waniss Taibi · Rodez
31'🟨Till Cissokho · Rodez
37'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
46'🟨Yanis Rafii · Amiens
63'⚽Malick Mbaye · Amiens
77'🟨Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
77'🟨Mohamed Jaouab · Amiens
90'🟨Antoine Leautey · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots5
3On target2
13Corners3
18Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.00
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days
813.00
601.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)8.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.35
elo1466.611385.30
elo momentum (last 5)-33.38-21.75
eye test v10.55-0.19
eye trend v10.04-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)66.1063.10
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.20
keeper form v10.660.63
league points32.0029.00
league rank9.0012.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8076.20
possession avg (last 5)44.0047.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.37
season ppg1.281.21
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-7.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.608.80
skill v1-0.90-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
state index-0.46-1.01
sterile dominance v1-1.370.37
threat rate (last 10)0.320.24
threat rate (last 3)0.360.17
threat rate (last 5)0.360.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60