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Clermont 1–1 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Rosier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia win38%2.50
Draw32%3.00
Clermont win30%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont +0.2553%1.83
Bastia +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽ (pen)Tom Ducrocq · Bastia
25'🟨Baïla Diallo · Clermont
40'🟨Yoan Koré · Clermont
43'🟨Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia
45'🟨Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia
45'🟥Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia
62'🟨Cheick Konate · Clermont
70'⚽Maïdine Douane · Clermont
84'🟨Johan Gastien · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots11
2On target4
7Corners3
16Fouls21
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.62
cards avg (last 5)2.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel-Montpied
coach days
105.00
258.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.653.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.70
elo1464.591481.51
elo momentum (last 5)-22.2617.19
eye test v10.490.72
eye trend v1-0.210.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.9055.10
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.710.69
league points27.0031.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6080.40
possession avg (last 5)57.4055.00
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.25
season ppg1.171.35
shot diff avg (last 5)1.209.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2016.40
skill v11.220.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.20
state index-0.520.33
sterile dominance v10.84-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.38
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00