← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Chapapria
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Amiens win | 38% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.10 |
| Grenoble win | 29% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Grenoble −0.25 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Amiens −0.25 | 44% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.58 |
| Over | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |