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Caen 0–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Mon, Feb 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win36%2.72
Caen win34%2.83
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque +051%1.91
Caen +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Yannis Clementia · Caen
25'🟨Vincent Sasso · Dunkerque
30'🟨Noe Lebreton · Caen
37'🟥Bilal Brahimi · Caen
45'⚽Gaëtan Courtet · Dunkerque
54'🟨Jules Gaudin · Caen
56'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Dunkerque
87'🟨Alexandre Mendy · Caen
87'🟨Yann M'Vila · Caen
87'🟨Yacine Bammou · Dunkerque
87'🟨Ugo Raghouber · Dunkerque
90'🟨Kay Tejan · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots20
0On target8
0Corners3
14Fouls14
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.740.58
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days9.00528.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.023.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.370.57
elo1365.091460.37
elo momentum (last 5)-54.010.13
eye test v10.02-0.11
eye trend v10.00-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.4060.20
form points (last 5)0.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.45
keeper form v10.74—
league points15.0039.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.001.00
matches since win10.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)59.6054.20
rest days9.2810.03
scorer concentration0.390.21
season ppg0.651.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.8011.60
skill v11.380.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-1.59-0.02
sterile dominance v11.630.50
threat rate (last 10)0.140.23
threat rate (last 3)0.150.21
threat rate (last 5)0.150.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60