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Bastia 1–1 Metz

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win40%2.40
Draw30%3.12
Bastia win30%3.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia +0.2553%1.85
Metz +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Maxime Blé · Bastia
39'🟨Loïc Etoga · Bastia
43'🟨Christophe Vincent · Bastia
45'🟨Idrissa Gueye · Metz
57'🟨Christ Inao Oulaï · Bastia
58'🟨Tom Meynadier · Bastia
64'🟨Loïc Etoga · Bastia
64'🟥Loïc Etoga · Bastia
89'🟨Johny Placide · Bastia
90'⚽ (pen)Gauthier Hein · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
22Shots5
5On target2
4Corners3
18Fouls18
6Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.720.77
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days244.00214.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.463.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.02
dominance (last 5)0.670.52
elo1462.711569.98
elo momentum (last 5)1.8319.94
eye test v10.710.15
eye trend v1-0.080.11
first sub minute (last 10)53.3057.30
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.720.70
league points27.0037.00
league rank14.007.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4083.20
possession avg (last 5)59.8055.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.32
season ppg1.291.76
shot diff avg (last 5)7.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.2013.20
skill v11.080.89
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.80
squad age—26.31
state index0.120.48
sterile dominance v10.680.62
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20