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Paris FC 4–1 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win60%1.60
Draw23%4.15
Red Star win17%6.07

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star −152%1.92
Paris FC −148%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Alimami Gory · Paris FC
31'🟨Timothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC
48'🟨Robin Risser · Red Star
48'⚽Alimami Gory · Paris FC
78'⚽Alimami Gory · Paris FC
85'⚽Aliou Badji · Red Star
90'⚽Lohann Doucet · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots12
6On target3
4Corners6
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.27
box share (last 5)0.650.68
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
coach days604.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
208.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.407.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.413.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1548.481334.02
elo momentum (last 5)-27.0735.87
eye test v10.64-0.33
eye trend v10.340.74
first sub minute (last 10)64.7067.10
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
keeper form v10.720.86
league points37.0022.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8082.20
possession avg (last 5)61.0053.40
rest days7.007.75
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg1.851.10
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.2012.80
skill v11.110.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.407.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
squad age27.59—
state index-0.07-0.23
sterile dominance v10.650.55
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40