⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Martigues 3–0 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2024-25 Β· Fri, Jan 24, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win47%2.08
Draw28%3.40
Martigues win25%3.84

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Martigues +0.554%1.82
Amiens +0.546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Yanis Hadjem · Martigues
16'🟨Siaka Bakayoko · Amiens
24'⚽Oualid Orinel · Martigues
39'🟨Ayoub Amraoui · Martigues
42'⚽Karim Tlilli · Martigues
63'🟨Samir Belloumou · Martigues
69'🟨Osaze Urhoghide · Amiens
78'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
90'🟨Elyess Dao · Amiens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
15Shots10
5On target4
4Corners3
20Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricMartiguesAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.00
box share (last 5)0.590.53
cards avg (last 5)1.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis Turcan
coach days23.00573.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.802.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.962.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.16
dominance (last 5)0.370.50
elo1353.261417.28
elo momentum (last 5)-10.15-53.66
eye test v1-0.880.19
eye trend v10.43-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)62.0068.90
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.25
keeper form v1β€”0.72
league points12.0026.00
league rank19.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6078.20
possession avg (last 5)38.4046.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.31
season ppg0.601.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.00
skill v1-1.00-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.60
state index-1.13-0.94
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.001.20