← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bouille
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 40% | 2.39 |
| Caen win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Guingamp +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Yannis Clementia · Caen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Brighton Labeau · Guingamp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Severin Sabri Guendouz · Guingamp |
| 75' | 🟨 | Quentin Lecoeuche · Caen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rayan Touzghar · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 54.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1397.55 | 1515.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.27 | 29.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.81 |
| league points | 15.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.58 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |