← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Pau FC win | 23% | 4.26 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bastia −0.5 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Julien Maggiotti · Bastia |
| 5' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Pau FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa · Pau FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Therence Koudou · Pau FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Therence Koudou · Pau FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jean Ruiz · Pau FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jordy Gaspar · Pau FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Khalid Boutaïb · Pau FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Julien Maggiotti · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days | 237.00 | 1668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1465.12 | 1439.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.28 | 19.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |