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Red Star 1–3 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Rosier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win37%2.66
Red Star win34%2.86
Draw29%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC +052%1.87
Red Star +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Antoine Mille · Pau FC
34'🟨Iyad Mohamed · Pau FC
43'🟨Bingourou Kamara · Pau FC
43'⚽Damien Durand · Red Star
61'⚽ (pen)Pathé Mboup · Pau FC
70'⚽Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC
88'🟨Robin Risser · Red Star
90'🟨Aliou Badji · Red Star
90'🟨Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots18
7On target8
7Corners5
13Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.25
box share (last 5)0.710.60
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
coach days200.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Paris
1661.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.911.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.05
dominance (last 5)0.370.56
elo1348.271425.66
elo momentum (last 5)40.2315.63
eye test v1-0.760.52
eye trend v10.350.43
first sub minute (last 10)65.0056.30
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
keeper form v10.930.78
league points22.0024.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg1.161.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6018.20
skill v10.360.27
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.60
state index-0.23-0.13
sterile dominance v10.67-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.190.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.41
threat rate (last 5)0.180.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20