← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Valnet
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 41% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.13 |
| Amiens win | 29% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Amiens +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bastia +0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Gustave Akueson · Bastia |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Louis Mafouta · Amiens |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zakaria Ariss · Bastia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Osaze Urhoghide · Amiens |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Louis Mafouta · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Chabane · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 566.00 | 230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1407.05 | 1475.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.21 | 11.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -1.18 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |