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Ajaccio 2–1 Caen

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win39%2.47
Draw31%3.10
Caen win30%3.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.2553%1.81
Ajaccio −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Lorenzo Rajot · Caen
40'🟨Julien Anziani · Ajaccio
42'🟨Axel Bamba · Ajaccio
42'🟨Brahim Traoré · Caen
62'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
70'⚽Axel Bamba · Ajaccio
83'⚽Aboubakary Kanté · Ajaccio
90'🟨Benjamin Santelli · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots5
4On target2
10Corners1
16Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.57
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.76
cards avg (last 5)3.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel-Moretti
coach days16.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.322.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.19
dominance (last 5)0.430.38
elo1361.381407.14
elo momentum (last 5)-36.76-42.90
eye test v1-0.690.09
eye trend v10.200.01
first sub minute (last 10)44.7056.50
form points (last 5)1.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
keeper form v10.720.75
league points18.0015.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win6.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6085.00
possession avg (last 5)47.6056.60
rest days6.256.25
scorer concentration0.300.35
season ppg0.950.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.20
skill v1-0.681.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
state index-1.23-1.17
sterile dominance v10.151.62
threat rate (last 10)0.200.17
threat rate (last 3)0.220.14
threat rate (last 5)0.180.12
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80