← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Paradis
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
| Grenoble win | 26% | 3.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grenoble −0.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Caen −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Bilal Brahimi · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Theo Valls · Grenoble |
| 60' | 🟥 | Valentin Henry · Caen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mamadou Diarra · Grenoble |
| 88' | 🟥 | Arial Mendy · Grenoble |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Caen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eddy Sylvestre · Grenoble |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 41.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1419.11 | 1409.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.16 | -19.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |