← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Ajaccio win | 16% | 6.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Ajaccio −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.56 |
| Over | 39% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jesah Ayessa · Ajaccio |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
| 20' | 🟨 | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
| 23' | ⚽ | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ivane Chegra · Ajaccio |
| 40' | ⚽ | Lamine Cissé · Bastia |
| 42' | 🟥 | Everson Junior · Ajaccio |
| 68' | ⚽ | Lisandru Tramoni · Bastia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maxime Blé · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days | 224.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1464.32 | 1372.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.93 | -32.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |