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Annecy 1–4 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy win37%2.65
Guingamp win33%2.92
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy +053%1.85
Guingamp +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp
22'🟨Alpha Sissoko · Guingamp
29'🟨Axel Drouhin · Annecy
32'🟨Ahmed Kashi · Annecy
44'🟨Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
47'⚽Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
60'⚽Josué Tiendrebeogo · Annecy
67'🟨Trévis Dago · Annecy
83'⚽Junior Mendes · Guingamp
90'⚽Amine Hemia · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots15
3On target7
4Corners1
16Fouls17
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.35
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueParc des Sports
coach days1350.00254.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1512.641478.62
elo momentum (last 5)7.59-1.85
eye test v10.45-0.61
eye trend v10.37-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.50
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.710.75
league points33.0029.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)42.2052.60
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.190.31
season ppg1.831.61
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.608.60
skill v1-1.470.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.80
state index0.31-0.27
sterile dominance v1-1.440.94
threat rate (last 10)0.300.22
threat rate (last 3)0.350.14
threat rate (last 5)0.330.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60