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Red Star 3–1 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win36%2.71
Grenoble win34%2.88
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star +051%1.88
Grenoble +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Hacene Benali · Red Star
16'⚽Kemo Cissé · Red Star
35'⚽Joachim Eickmayer · Red Star
43'🟨Jessy Benet · Grenoble
45'🟨Joachim Eickmayer · Red Star
53'⚽Pape Meissa Ba · Grenoble
76'🟨Hianga'a M'Bock · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
15Shots20
3On target7
4Corners7
14Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.33
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Paris
coach days166.0013.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.380.42
elo1301.111416.91
elo momentum (last 5)-25.16-38.82
eye test v1-0.99-0.38
eye trend v1-0.15-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)59.2057.10
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v11.00—
league points15.0019.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win4.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4079.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8050.60
rest days7.757.00
scorer concentration0.200.50
season ppg0.941.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.6010.40
skill v10.390.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.60
state index-1.19-1.06
sterile dominance v10.930.40
threat rate (last 10)0.180.20
threat rate (last 3)0.140.19
threat rate (last 5)0.160.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40