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Amiens 1–3 Laval

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win44%2.15
Draw30%3.15
Laval win26%3.93

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens −0.2553%1.82
Laval −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Mamadou Camara · Laval
11'🟨Christ-Owen Kouassi · Laval
51'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
72'⚽Antoine Leautey · Amiens
83'🟨Louis Mafouta · Amiens
85'⚽Titouan Thomas · Laval
86'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
86'🟥Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
89'⚽ (pen)Mamadou Camara · Laval
90'🟨Frank Boya · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots7
5On target3
3Corners5
10Fouls16
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.520.77
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days531.001992.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.11
corner diff avg (last 5)4.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)1.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.872.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1470.951462.24
elo momentum (last 5)-15.2528.82
eye test v10.81-0.09
eye trend v1-0.190.20
first sub minute (last 10)67.4060.00
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v1—0.78
league points23.0023.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)47.8042.20
rest days6.257.00
scorer concentration0.270.30
season ppg1.531.44
shot diff avg (last 5)3.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0011.60
skill v10.24-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.20
state index-0.130.21
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.48
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.360.25
threat rate (last 5)0.340.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00