← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 45% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Red Star win | 26% | 3.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia +0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Red Star +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.61 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jose Dembi · Red Star |
| 35' | 🟨 | Blondon Meyapya Fongain · Red Star |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hianga'a M'Bock · Red Star |
| 56' | 🟨 | Clement Rodrigues · Bastia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Merwan Ifnaoui · Red Star |
| 72' | 🟨 | Loïc Etoga · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryad Hachem · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 20 |
| 0 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Red Star | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de Paris |
| coach days | 158.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1298.16 | 1463.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.59 | -13.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 3.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.08 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |