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Bastia 0–0 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win42%2.32
Bastia win30%3.24
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia +0.2552%1.89
FC Lorient +0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.81
Over47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Zakaria Ariss · Bastia
32'🟥Jocelyn Janneh · Bastia
53'🟨Tom Ducrocq · Bastia
61'🟨Christ Inao Oulaï · Bastia
81'🟨Julien Laporte · FC Lorient
85'🟨Igor Silva · FC Lorient
89'🟨Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient
90'🟥Anthony Roncaglia · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots16
1On target8
6Corners6
10Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.80
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days175.00175.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.23
corner diff avg (last 5)1.403.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.253.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.19
dominance (last 5)0.650.55
elo1462.391579.01
elo momentum (last 5)-14.0513.85
eye test v10.150.14
eye trend v1-0.02-0.46
first sub minute (last 10)57.7057.50
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.003.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.680.67
league points17.0026.00
league rank14.004.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6082.40
possession avg (last 5)57.2053.00
rest days15.0014.25
scorer concentration0.270.32
season ppg1.312.00
shot diff avg (last 5)7.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.8013.00
skill v10.760.65
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
squad age—25.61
state index-0.410.38
sterile dominance v10.470.36
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00