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Guingamp 3–0 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Kubler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win56%1.71
Draw25%3.80
Grenoble win19%5.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −0.7550%1.93
Grenoble −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Brighton Labeau · Guingamp
3'🟨Nolan Mbemba · Grenoble
57'⚽Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
60'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble
67'⚽Amadou Sagna · Guingamp
73'🟨Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
74'🟨Saikou Touray · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots16
8On target5
4Corners8
7Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.620.51
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days185.00124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.06
dominance (last 5)0.600.39
elo1466.491455.73
elo momentum (last 5)-15.0920.78
eye test v10.68-0.36
eye trend v1-0.510.11
first sub minute (last 10)63.4060.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.670.78
league points19.0017.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8077.20
possession avg (last 5)56.0046.60
rest days3.983.98
scorer concentration0.240.50
season ppg1.581.55
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.40
skill v10.98-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.40
state index-0.21-0.19
sterile dominance v10.510.21
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60