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Paris FC 3–3 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win56%1.71
Draw25%3.90
Rodez win19%5.05

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC −0.7550%1.93
Rodez −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Nolan Galves · Rodez
34'⚽Lohann Doucet · Paris FC
37'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
45'🟨Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Rodez
48'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
51'🟨Maxime López · Paris FC
53'⚽Maxime López · Paris FC
67'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
71'🟨Wilitty Younoussa · Rodez
88'🟨Lionel Mpasi Nzau · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
13Shots12
7On target6
6Corners3
9Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
coach days519.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
701.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.771.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.14
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1587.321481.08
elo momentum (last 5)34.8219.10
eye test v10.850.07
eye trend v1-0.14-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)67.0066.60
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.790.67
league points28.0014.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.4075.00
possession avg (last 5)61.6040.80
rest days2.982.98
scorer concentration0.250.31
season ppg2.331.17
shot diff avg (last 5)4.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0013.00
skill v11.76-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.40
squad age27.36—
state index0.850.10
sterile dominance v11.20-0.97
threat rate (last 10)0.190.33
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00