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Clermont 2–1 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win44%2.19
Clermont win29%3.38
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient +0.2551%1.89
Clermont +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient
20'🟨Johan Gastien · Clermont
24'🟨Isaac James · FC Lorient
44'🟨Panos Katseris · FC Lorient
45'⚽Damien Da Silva · Clermont
76'⚽Maïdine Douane · Clermont
80'🟨Baïla Diallo · Clermont
81'⚽ (pen)Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient
90'🟨Yoël Armougom · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots9
4On target2
2Corners8
10Fouls16
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.69
cards avg (last 5)3.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel-Montpied
coach days0.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.603.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.933.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.360.65
elo1496.751580.79
elo momentum (last 5)-5.0433.54
eye test v1-0.401.19
eye trend v10.08-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)57.4055.70
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.203.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.760.74
league points15.0023.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0083.60
possession avg (last 5)49.2057.80
rest days2.982.98
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg1.252.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.208.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2016.80
skill v10.191.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.906.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.80
squad age—25.53
state index-0.320.65
sterile dominance v10.660.37
threat rate (last 10)0.170.26
threat rate (last 3)0.160.24
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00