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Annecy 2–0 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 Β· Fri, Nov 1, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Batta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy win38%2.55
Pau FC win33%2.98
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC βˆ’0.2555%1.74
Annecy βˆ’0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (pen)Kapitbafan Djoco · Annecy
8'🟨Steeve Beusnard · Pau FC
16'🟨Jean Ruiz · Pau FC
33'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
36'🟨Bingourou Kamara · Pau FC
45'🟨Fabrice N'Sakala · Annecy
52'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
52'πŸŸ₯Vincent Pajot Β· Annecy
82'🟨Ahmed Kashi · Annecy
85'🟨Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
85'🟨Iyad Mohamed · Pau FC
89'⚽ (og)Iyad Mohamed · Annecy

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots9
5On target2
2Corners10
20Fouls9
5Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.32
box share (last 5)0.520.55
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
coach days1280.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueParc des Sports
1584.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.911.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.18
dominance (last 5)0.490.45
elo1495.781416.09
elo momentum (last 5)7.98-39.19
eye test v1-0.46-0.45
eye trend v1-0.01-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)61.6058.70
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
keeper form v10.700.68
league points22.0015.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.2079.60
possession avg (last 5)44.4052.80
rest days2.982.98
scorer concentration0.180.31
season ppg1.831.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.60
skill v1-1.480.39
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index0.24-1.17
sterile dominance v1-0.900.56
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60