← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Lorient win | 68% | 61% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 27% | 5.00 | value: +33% |
| Dunkerque win | 13% | 13% | 7.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Lorient −1.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Dunkerque −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat |