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FC Lorient 4–2 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Chapapria

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win64%1.47
Draw21%4.61
Annecy win15%6.84

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy −1.2553%1.84
FC Lorient −1.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Kapitbafan Djoco · Annecy
36'🟨Florian Escales · Annecy
40'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
55'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
70'⚽Joel Mugisha Mvuka · FC Lorient
72'🟨Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
74'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
88'⚽Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient
90'⚽Trévis Dago · Annecy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots9
9On target4
6Corners1
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat
coach days140.001267.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.20
corner diff avg (last 5)4.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.795.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.05
dominance (last 5)0.650.41
elo1565.161493.50
elo momentum (last 5)12.1420.71
eye test v11.02-0.72
eye trend v1-0.32-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)53.4060.20
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.20—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.760.72
league points16.0018.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank2.0014.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4062.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0039.60
rest days14.2515.00
scorer concentration0.400.15
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)7.00-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.409.60
skill v11.03-2.00
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.403.40
squad age24.66—
state index0.670.19
sterile dominance v10.32-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.320.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40