← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Caen win | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Red Star −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Noe Lebreton · Caen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Valentin Henry · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Damien Durand · Red Star |
| 63' | ⚽ | Tidiam Gomis · Caen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ryad Hachem · Red Star |
| 81' | ⚽ | Damien Durand · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hacene Benali · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Red Star | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de Paris |
| 109.00 |
| 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1318.22 | 1449.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.15 | -20.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |