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Metz 3–2 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win55%1.73
Draw26%3.60
Amiens win18%5.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens −0.7551%1.92
Metz −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Gauthier Hein · Metz
21'⚽Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz
29'🟨Koffi Kouao · Metz
43'⚽Gauthier Hein · Metz
45'⚽Antoine Leautey · Amiens
49'🟨Gauthier Hein · Metz
56'🟨Sébastien Corchia · Amiens
76'⚽Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
85'🟨Rayan Lutin · Amiens
90'🟨Ibou Sane · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
15Shots6
7On target4
2Corners1
18Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.44
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Saint-Symphorien
coach days96.00462.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.408.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1545.341464.30
elo momentum (last 5)-4.106.48
eye test v10.180.74
eye trend v1-0.17-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)68.0065.50
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.730.79
league points12.0012.00
league rank10.009.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2079.00
possession avg (last 5)59.0046.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.500.33
season ppg1.501.71
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.00
skill v11.39-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
squad age25.91—
state index0.06-0.18
sterile dominance v11.08-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20