← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 43% | 25% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +8% |
| Clermont win | 28% | 42% | 3.54 | value: +49% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Clermont +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Yohann Magnin · Clermont |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ousmane Diop · Clermont |
| 23' | 🟨 | Baïla Diallo · Clermont |
| 25' | 🟨 | Habib Keita · Clermont |
| 25' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pierre Lemonnier · Guingamp |
| 53' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Clermont |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ousmane Diop · Clermont |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jacques Siwe · Guingamp |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ousmane Diop · Clermont |
| 88' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel-Montpied |
| ⚽ |
| Amadou Sagna · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maïdine Douane · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 96.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1533.84 | 1522.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -65.59 | -6.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 4.72 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |