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Red Star 1–3 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win47%2.00
Draw27%3.60
Red Star win25%3.84

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star +0.551%1.89
Paris FC +0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Ryad Hachem · Red Star
20'⚽Adama Camara · Paris FC
26'🟨Timothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC
32'⚽Fodé Doucouré · Red Star
45'🟨Quentin Beunardeau · Red Star
45'⚽ (pen)Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
53'🟨Adama Camara · Paris FC
57'⚽Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC
76'🟨Bissenty Mendy · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots11
4On target6
6Corners7
16Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.51
box share (last 5)0.630.52
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
coach days89.00485.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Paris
congestion 21d
3.00
3.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.002.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.601.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.350.55
elo1331.301543.68
elo momentum (last 5)11.504.72
eye test v1-0.330.46
eye trend v1-0.260.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.5062.40
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.85
keeper form v10.570.74
league points7.0012.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8086.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8061.60
rest days3.733.73
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg1.172.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.601.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.20
skill v10.331.60
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
squad age—27.25
state index-0.810.19
sterile dominance v10.501.71
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.170.18
threat rate (last 5)0.200.16
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60