← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laval win | 38% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
| Pau FC win | 31% | 38% | 3.23 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Laval −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Tairyk Arconte · Pau FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Pau FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jimmy Roye · Laval |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Malik Tchokounte · Laval |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bingourou Kamara · Pau FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kandet Diawara · Pau FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Khalid Boutaïb · Pau FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Antoine Mille · Pau FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sam Sanna · Laval |
| 76' | ⚽ | Oumar Ngom · Pau FC |
| 80' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Laval | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Francis Le Basser |
| Malik Sellouki · Laval |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mamadou Samassa · Laval |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moise Adilehou · Laval |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1915.00 | 1549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1445.23 | 1479.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.93 | 24.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |