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Grenoble 3–0 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win40%2.38
Clermont win31%3.23
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −0.2553%1.85
Grenoble −0.2547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Mamady Bangré · Grenoble
45'🟨Yohann Magnin · Clermont
45'⚽Dante Rigo · Grenoble
58'🟥Massamba Ndiaye · Clermont
62'⚽Jessy Benet · Grenoble
84'⚽Pape Meissa Ba · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots7
5On target3
5Corners8
9Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.590.58
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days88.0088.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.751.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1434.951501.79
elo momentum (last 5)17.74-34.09
eye test v1-0.28-0.85
eye trend v1-0.080.07
first sub minute (last 10)62.0056.90
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.750.76
league points10.008.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6083.80
possession avg (last 5)52.6052.60
rest days2.982.98
scorer concentration0.44—
season ppg1.671.14
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.608.80
skill v10.470.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.40
state index0.02-0.52
sterile dominance v10.561.00
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20